In a major primary upset with national implications, State Rep. Steve Toth defeated four-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District on March 17, unseating one of the most recognizable GOP members of Congress.
With most precincts reporting, Toth opened a decisive lead and declared victory hours before the race was formally called. The Associated Press later confirmed the result. The outcome effectively ends Crenshaw’s congressional career, barring an unforeseen political return, and positions Toth as the heavy favorite to win the Houston-area seat in November in a district that leans reliably Republican.
The race had evolved into a proxy battle over the ideological direction of the Republican Party, particularly within Texas. Toth ran as an unapologetic MAGA-aligned conservative, arguing that Crenshaw had drifted away from grassroots priorities and had not consistently delivered on campaign promises.
In a statement following his victory, Toth emphasized commitment and follow-through. “Congressional District 2 voters want a representative in D.C. who will stand firm in his convictions, fight for his constituents, and follow through on his promises. I won’t let them down,” Toth said.
The language was widely interpreted as a pointed contrast with Crenshaw, who had campaigned in previous cycles as a strong conservative but had drawn criticism from parts of the Republican base over several high-profile positions.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who lost an eye in combat and rose quickly in national GOP circles after first being elected in 2018, had typically cleared primaries with double-digit margins. This cycle proved markedly different. Despite outraising Toth by approximately $1.3 million, Crenshaw was unable to overcome mounting dissatisfaction among conservative activists and primary voters.
Toth’s campaign framed the race as a referendum on what he described as “establishment Republicanism” versus a more populist, America First approach. According to reporting from the Texas Tribune, Toth is widely considered one of the most conservative members of the Texas House. He has frequently clashed with party leadership and has questioned policy decisions by Gov. Greg Abbott.
The primary also drew the involvement of prominent conservative figures. Sen. Ted Cruz backed Toth, as did Turning Point Action, a national grassroots organization aligned with the party’s right flank.
Crenshaw also faced backlash for comments made after the 2020 presidential election. While some Republican lawmakers called for sweeping investigations into alleged irregularities, Crenshaw publicly rejected claims of systemic fraud altering the outcome.
“It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie,” Crenshaw said in a 2022 interview, criticizing what he characterized as political theatrics surrounding the issue. Those remarks alienated segments of the GOP base who believed the election required deeper scrutiny.
During the 2026 campaign, critics also accused Crenshaw of insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump. Trump did not endorse Crenshaw in the primary, a notable absence in a race increasingly defined by alignment with the president.
Toth amplified additional lines of attack during interviews, including raising questions about congressional stock trading and political accountability. Crenshaw strongly denied allegations that he had profited improperly from stock transactions, stating that he had not made a trade in three years and that his total gains during his time in office amounted to less than $46,000.
Following his defeat, Crenshaw attributed the result in part to online misinformation and what he described as the “power of clickbait.” In comments to the Texas Tribune, he said many voters were reacting to narratives that did not accurately reflect his record.
“It’s not like anyone was going to the polls saying, ‘I disagree with that vote,’” Crenshaw said. “Too many people are not discerning through the clickbait.”
Texas’s 2nd Congressional District encompasses parts of northern and eastern Harris County, including suburban communities north of Houston. The district has trended Republican in recent cycles, meaning the GOP nominee typically enters the general election with a structural advantage.
With Crenshaw now out of the race, attention shifts to the general election, where Toth is positioned as the presumptive favorite. Whether the upset signals a broader pattern in Texas politics remains to be seen, but the primary outcome marks one of the most consequential Republican shakeups of the 2026 cycle.