Prediction markets are showing increasingly competitive odds for control of Congress ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently placing the probability of Democrats winning back the House at about 50 percent and the Senate at roughly 49.8 percent.
According to the platforms, those are the highest odds recorded so far for Democrats in the run-up to the November elections, Newsweek reported on Saturday. Democrats are seeking to regain legislative influence after Republicans swept the 2024 elections and maintained control of Congress.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested in the midterms, giving Democrats an opportunity to reclaim the chamber for the first time since Republicans took control in 2022.
Historically, midterm elections have often posed challenges for the party holding the White House. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined somewhat since he returned to office in January 2025, as voters continue to express concerns about economic conditions and the cost of living.
On Polymarket’s election tracker, the single most likely outcome currently shows Democrats winning control of the House while Republicans retain the Senate, with roughly a 49.8 percent probability. The second most likely scenario places Democrats winning the House and Republicans keeping the Senate at about 36 percent.
A full Republican victory in 2026 — with the GOP controlling both the House and the Senate — is currently at about 14.5 percent on prediction markets. The least likely outcome listed is the opposite split, with Republicans winning the House while Democrats hold the Senate, which stands at roughly 1 percent.
On Kalshi’s market tracker, the most likely scenario shows Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress, with about a 50 percent probability. The next most likely outcome is Democrats taking the House while Republicans retain the Senate, at around 36 percent.
The probability of Republicans maintaining control of both the House and Senate is estimated at about 15 percent. As with other projections, the least likely scenario remains Republicans winning the House while Democrats hold the Senate, which is listed at approximately 1 percent, Newsweek reported.
Recent national polling on the 2026 midterm elections shows Democrats holding a modest lead on the generic congressional ballot, a common measure that asks voters which party they would support for Congress if the election were held today.
Polling averages compiled by outlets such as RealClearPolitics indicate Democrats leading Republicans by roughly four to five percentage points nationally. The average places Democratic support at about 47 percent, compared with approximately 42 to 43 percent for Republicans.
Individual national surveys have reported similar margins. A March 6–9 Economist/YouGov poll of 1,563 registered voters found Democrats ahead by a 45 percent to 41 percent margin, the outlet noted.
An NBC News national survey conducted between February 27 and March 3 among 1,000 registered voters showed Democrats leading the congressional ballot 50 percent to 44 percent, a six-point advantage.
But that said, CNN’s chief data analyst said in Decemer the Democratic Party’s approval rating had fallen to historic lows, with pollsters finding congressional Democrats in their worst position on record. Analyst Harry Enten said the party’s approval rating is “lower than the Dead Sea” based on recent polling data.
Enten cited results from a Quinnipiac University national poll showing deep dissatisfaction with Democrats in Congress among voters, Newsweek reported. According to the poll, Democrats in Congress have a net approval rating of minus 55 percentage points overall.
Among independent voters, the net approval rating falls even further to minus 61 percentage points.
Quinnipiac University has “never found Democrats, at least those in Congress, in worse shape than they are right now,” Enten said.
Last week, Fox News cited a new NBC News poll that found just 30% of registered voters view the Democratic Party positively, compared to 52% who view it negatively.
“The poll, the latest over the past year to indicate the Democratic Party brand, in some cases, hitting historic lows, comes as Democrats aim to escape the political wilderness and win back House and Senate majorities in the 2026 midterm elections,” Fox noted.