Speculation has increased in legal and political circles over whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, one of the most conservative members of the high court, may retire later this year, a development that could allow President Donald Trump to nominate another justice.
President George W. Bush appointed Alito, 75, to the Supreme Court, where he has served since 2006. His judicial record has been influential in shaping conservative outcomes on issues such as administrative authority and constitutional interpretation.
“That is usually a very good milestone on which to retire,” Melissa Murray, a law professor at New York University, said on the latest episode of the podcast Strict Scrutiny that she co-hosts, referring to Alito’s age.
While no confirmation of retirement has been made by Alito or the court, observers have noted increased chatter among legal commentators and analysts about the timing of his plans. Some have suggested that a retirement announcement could come later this year and allow for a nomination process with a Republican-controlled Senate.
Senate Republicans might be hesitant to hold a confirmation hearing during the fall of an election year. Therefore, Alito could announce in the coming weeks that he plans to step down at the end of the term, as suggested by Strict Scrutiny co-host Kate Shaw.
Some names swirling on social media as potential picks President Trump may consider to replace Alito include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Another name being mentioned is U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon of Florida, a Trump appointee from his first term.
Analysts point to factors such as Alito’s upcoming book release later this year and historical trends in judicial career timelines when discussing the speculation, but others caution that the publication schedule may not indicate any planned departure from the bench.
Steve Vladeck, a law professor at Georgetown University who writes about the high court on Substack, called the publication date “a pretty big tell since one can’t exactly go on a book tour during the first argument session of the term.”
Recently, Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Amy Coney Barrett published their books in September, providing them with the opportunity to promote their work before the start of a new term.
However, court watcher and lawyer David Lat, who writes about legal issues, has speculated that the October publication date of Justice Samuel Alito’s book might indicate that he plans to remain on the Court.
“Book buyers are much more interested in what a current justice has to say, as opposed to a retired one,” Lat wrote on Substack. “I could see Justice Alito not wanting to step down until well after publication.”
Any retirement by Alito would present a significant opportunity for Trump to shape the court’s future direction and potentially extend the conservative majority for years, analysts say.
At this time, Alito has made no public statement regarding retirement, and court officials have not announced any scheduled changes to the bench.
In a recent evaluation of the likelihood of a Supreme Court vacancy, Washington consultant Bruce Mehlman pointed out that all of the current justices are significantly younger than the average retirement age of 79 for those who have left the Court in recent years. As an aside, Alito will turn 76 in April.
President Trump has previously expressed his desire for Alito and fellow conservative justice Clarence Thomas to remain on the bench, telling reporters that he hopes both justices stay because he considers them “fantastic,” although he also acknowledged broader speculation about possible retirements.