Speculation has increased recently about whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Supreme Court, might retire later this year, potentially allowing President Donald Trump to nominate another justice.
President George W. Bush appointed Alito, 75, as the second-longest-serving justice on the current court, and he took his seat in 2006. His conservative jurisprudence has helped shape the Court’s direction, particularly on issues such as administrative authority and constitutional interpretation.
“That is usually a very good milestone on which to retire,” Melissa Murray, a law professor at New York University, said on the latest episode of the podcast Strict Scrutiny that she co-hosts, USA Today reported.
While no official retirement announcement has been made, chatter among legal observers and political commentators intensified after reports surfaced suggesting interest in the timing of his plans. Some analysts have noted that a retirement in mid-2026 could allow Republicans to confirm a replacement before the November elections if the GOP maintains Senate control.
Senate Republicans might be hesitant to hold a confirmation hearing during the fall of an election year. Therefore, Alito could announce in the coming weeks that he plans to step down at the end of the term, as suggested by Strict Scrutiny co-host Kate Shaw.
Also, Alito has a book coming out in October, as the court begins a new term, USA Today added.
Steve Vladeck, a law professor at Georgetown University who writes about the high court on Substack, called the publication date “a pretty big tell since one can’t exactly go on a book tour during the first argument session of the term.”
Recently, Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson and Amy Coney Barrett published their books in September, providing them with the opportunity to promote their work before the start of a new term.
However, court watcher and lawyer David Lat, who writes about legal issues, has speculated that the October publication date of Justice Samuel Alito’s book might indicate that he plans to remain on the Court.
“Book buyers are much more interested in what a current justice has to say, as opposed to a retired one,” Lat wrote on Substack. “I could see Justice Alito not wanting to step down until well after publication.”
In a recent evaluation of the likelihood of a Supreme Court vacancy, Washington consultant Bruce Mehlman pointed out that all of the current justices are significantly younger than the average retirement age of 79 for those who have left the Court in recent years. As an aside, Alito will turn 76 in April.
President Trump has previously expressed his desire for Alito and fellow conservative justice Clarence Thomas to remain on the bench, telling reporters that he hopes both justices stay because he considers them “fantastic,” although he also acknowledged broader speculation about possible retirements.
The Supreme Court is currently hearing a range of high-profile cases in its 2025–26 term, including questions related to federal agency authority, immigration policy, and constitutional interpretation. Any change in the Court’s makeup could influence how those and future decisions are decided.
At this time, Alito has not publicly indicated any retirement plans, and court officials have no scheduled announcements regarding changes in the justices’ lineup. Discussions about potential turnover reflect ongoing interest in how the Court’s composition might affect pivotal rulings in coming years.
Since the 1950s, only three presidents—Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan—have had the opportunity to fill more openings on the Supreme Court than Trump, who has appointed three – Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett.
If Alito decides to retire, Trump would have the chance to appoint a much younger justice, which could help sustain the court’s conservative majority for many years.