‘Melania’ Documentary Defies Expectations With Strong Box Office Opening
The new documentary, Melania, produced by Amazon MGM and centered on First Lady Melania Trump, is on track for a stronger-than-expected debut at the box office, surprising many industry observers.
According to early estimates, the film is projected to earn at least $8 million in its opening weekend, making it the strongest documentary opening in the past 10 years. The project has also been reported as the most expensive documentary ever produced, adding to the attention surrounding its release.
Industry tracking suggests Melania will finish No. 3 at the domestic box office, trailing only the new releases Send Help and Iron Lung, while narrowly outperforming actor Jason Statham’s latest action film, Shelter, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Analysts Caught Off Guard
Prior to release, many analysts predicted the documentary would struggle, pointing to reportedly sparse advance ticket sales and nearly empty seat maps at theaters nationwide. Those expectations have now been upended by stronger-than-anticipated turnout.
The film’s performance has surprised commentators who had expected limited interest outside niche audiences.
Strong Support From Conservative Viewers
The documentary appears to be resonating particularly well with conservative audiences, especially in the South and south-central regions of the United States. A targeted marketing effort aimed at older conservatives culminated in a high-profile Washington, D.C., premiere on Thursday night, attended by President Donald Trump and a number of prominent supporters.
Audience Skews Older and Female
Early demographic data shows the film’s success is being driven overwhelmingly by older viewers, particularly women.
72% of opening-day ticket buyers were women aged 55 and older
78% of all moviegoers were 55 or older
Those figures underscore the documentary’s strong appeal among older, conservative female audiences — a demographic often overlooked by Hollywood marketing strategies.
A Notable Moment for Political Documentaries
While it remains to be seen how the film performs in the coming weeks, Melania’s opening suggests that politically focused documentaries, when aimed at the right audience, can still draw significant box office interest.
For now, the documentary’s early success has clearly exceeded expectations and challenged assumptions about demand for politically themed films outside traditional Hollywood circles.