The 2028 U.S. Senate race in Alaska may be shaping up as one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Governor Mike Dunleavy, a loyal ally of former President Donald Trump, is preparing to challenge longtime Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican who has often broken with Trump and frustrated the conservative base.
While the election is still years away, political observers already see this looming contest as a litmus test for the Republican Party’s identity—both in Alaska and nationwide. Will Alaska voters stick with a pragmatic centrist who has weathered political storms for more than two decades, or will they turn to a governor who has tied his political fortunes to Trump and a more populist brand of conservatism?
Murkowski: A Survivor in Alaska Politics
Lisa Murkowski has built her career on balancing independence with party loyalty. First appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, then-Governor Frank Murkowski, she faced criticism for what opponents called nepotism. But she quickly proved she could win on her own terms.
In 2010, Murkowski lost the Republican primary to Tea Party challenger Joe Miller. Rather than bow out, she mounted a historic write-in campaign and won the general election, one of the rare times in modern history a write-in candidate succeeded at the federal level. That victory solidified her image as a political survivor who could overcome long odds and connect with Alaskans across the political spectrum.
Her voting record has often angered conservatives. She voted against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act in 2017, opposed Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court before ultimately voting “present,” and supported the bipartisan infrastructure bill in 2021. Perhaps most controversially for Republicans, Murkowski voted to convict Donald Trump during his second impeachment trial in 2021, arguing that he failed to uphold his oath of office on January 6th.
Despite the backlash, she held onto her seat in 2022 under Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system. That victory suggested that while Murkowski may not be loved by the Republican base, she has strong appeal among independents, moderates, and Democrats—groups that play a key role in Alaska’s unique political landscape.
Dunleavy: A Governor With Trump’s Backing
In contrast, Governor Mike Dunleavy has positioned himself as a consistent supporter of Donald Trump and his policies. A former educator and state senator, Dunleavy first won the governorship in 2018 with a promise to expand Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), a popular oil revenue payout to residents.
While his term has been marked by battles over state spending, education, and the role of government in Alaska’s resource-dependent economy, Dunleavy has maintained steady conservative credentials. He was one of the first governors to endorse Trump in 2016 and remained a close ally during Trump’s presidency, frequently traveling the 3,500 miles to Washington for White House meetings.
More recently, Dunleavy joined Trump at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, underscoring his role as both a state leader and a figure in Trump’s international outreach. Sources close to the governor say Trump has personally encouraged him to seek the Senate seat, seeing him as a loyal partner who could strengthen Trump’s influence in Congress.
“Trump has talked to him before about running and wants him to run,” one insider told Fox News Digital.
The Trump Factor
Donald Trump’s shadow looms large over the 2028 race. Murkowski’s vote to convict him after January 6th has left her with a fractured relationship with the Republican base. In contrast, Dunleavy’s loyalty has earned him Trump’s backing, a powerful asset in Republican primaries but a more complicated factor in Alaska’s general elections.
Alaska Republicans remain deeply conservative, but the state’s adoption of ranked-choice voting in 2020 has changed the political equation. Candidates must appeal to a broader swath of voters, including independents and moderate Democrats, to secure victory. That system helped Murkowski win in 2022 despite strong opposition from Trump and his supporters.
The question now is whether Dunleavy’s alliance with Trump will energize enough voters to topple Murkowski, or whether her reputation as a pragmatic dealmaker will carry her through once again.
Why Dunleavy Might Run
Insiders say Dunleavy is weighing the race carefully. He has made it clear he will not resign early from the governorship, a mistake that haunted Sarah Palin after she stepped down in 2009 to pursue national ambitions. Instead, Dunleavy plans to finish his term and position himself as a candidate with a record of leadership and a vision for Alaska’s future.
“He’s not about ego and pushing himself in front of the cameras. He gets stuff done,” a close source told reporters.
Supporters also argue that Dunleavy understands Washington is where critical decisions are made about energy, natural resources, and Indigenous policy—issues central to Alaska’s identity and economy. Running for Senate gives him a chance to influence those debates on a national scale.
The Challenges Ahead
But Dunleavy faces challenges. For one, Alaska’s history suggests governors often struggle when seeking higher office. The last governor to win re-election outright was Jay Hammond in 1978. Palin’s resignation still lingers as a cautionary tale.
Murkowski’s name recognition, deep connections, and proven ability to survive political battles also make her a formidable opponent. Even many voters who disagree with her votes respect her independence and willingness to stand up to her own party.
Moreover, ranked-choice voting could again benefit Murkowski if she makes it to the general election. Democrats and independents may list her as their second choice, a strategy that worked in 2022 and could work again in 2028.
What’s at Stake
The Dunleavy-Murkowski clash is more than just a Senate race—it’s a battle for the future of the Republican Party in Alaska and possibly beyond.
If Murkowski wins, it will reinforce the idea that moderation and independence can still thrive in an era of partisan polarization, at least in states with unique political systems like Alaska. It would also deal a symbolic blow to Trump, showing that his influence has limits even within the Republican Party.
If Dunleavy wins, it will signal that Trump’s brand of populist conservatism remains dominant among Republican voters and can overcome institutional hurdles like ranked-choice voting. It could also give Trump a reliable ally in the Senate, strengthening his hand if he returns to the White House or remains a powerful figure in GOP politics.
Looking Ahead
Though the official announcement has not yet come, the anticipation is already reshaping Alaska’s political conversations. Activists, donors, and party leaders are preparing for what could be one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races of the 2028 cycle.
Both candidates bring strengths and vulnerabilities. Murkowski is a survivor with a proven ability to build broad coalitions, but she carries baggage from her clashes with Trump. Dunleavy is a loyal Trump ally with strong conservative credentials, but he must prove he can expand his appeal beyond the base in a system designed to reward moderation.
As the nation watches, Alaska may once again show how unpredictable—and consequential—its politics can be.