Former North Carolina Democratic Governor Roy Cooper seems well-positioned to challenge the incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis, based on recent polling data.
However, Democrats overall are facing a difficult Senate map in next year’s midterm elections.
With few pickup opportunities, Democrats will be playing defense in several races as Republicans eye seats that could be ripe for GOP gains, Newsweek noted, adding that an exception could be Tillis’ seat in increasingly purple North Carolina.
Cooper served as North Carolina’s governor from 2017 to 2024, holding the office as a Democrat even as Donald Trump carried the state in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections. Both of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seats have been held by Republicans since 2015.
Although Cooper has not formally announced a Senate bid, Democratic leaders are actively encouraging him to run, viewing him as a strong contender to challenge Tillis.
New polling released Thursday by The Carolina Journal, the John Locke Foundation, and Cygnal shows that former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holds a significantly stronger favorability rating among North Carolinians than incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
According to the survey, 48 percent of respondents view Cooper favorably, compared to just 26 percent who hold a favorable view of Tillis—a gap of more than 22 percentage points, Newsweek reported.
The poll also found that Senator Tillis has higher unfavorable ratings than Cooper—46 percent compared to 37 percent. Conducted from May 11 to May 13, the survey included 614 likely voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.94 percent.
A separate poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) in March showed Cooper leading Tillis in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 47 percent of respondents supporting Cooper and 43 percent backing Tillis. An additional 9 percent said they were undecided.
The PPP poll also found that 47 percent of voters viewed Cooper favorably, while 42 percent held an unfavorable opinion. In contrast, just 25 percent approved of Tillis’s performance in the Senate, compared to 46 percent who disapproved. That survey, conducted March 4–5, included 662 registered voters and had a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points.
Although North Carolina has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 2008, Democrats have found success in recent statewide races. Most notably, Democratic Governor Josh Stein won the 2024 election, securing nearly 55 percent of the vote, even as Donald Trump carried the state with approximately 51 percent.
The last Democrat to represent North Carolina in the U.S. Senate was Kay Hagan, who won her seat in 2008 but lost her 2014 reelection bid to Thom Tillis.
As of now, the Cook Political Report rates the upcoming Senate race in North Carolina as “Lean Republican.”
Still, some Democrats remain hopeful that Cooper could beat Tillis.
“If Roy Cooper decides to run, it would really make the race one of the most competitive races in the country next year, could be the most of any Senate race in the country,” Democratic strategist Doug Wilson told The Hill in March.
“He gets encouragement every single day from folks all across North Carolina, as well as Democrat leaders around the country who really want him to run. He’s been clear that he’s going to take a little time to figure this out,” Morgan Jackson, longtime adviser to Cooper, told The Assembly in March on the former governor’s plan.
In a statement posted this week to the Senate Republican’s X account, Tillis wrote: “Under Republican leadership, America is coming back stronger than ever. With President Trump at the helm, we’re securing our borders, unleashing energy, cracking down on crime, and driving unstoppable prosperity. The Golden Age is just beginning.”
While early polling looks favorable for the potential Democratic challenger, much could shift in the months leading up to the November 2026 midterms.
Recent historical trends suggest that Democrats may have the advantage overall. Traditionally, the party not occupying the White House tends to make significant gains during midterm elections, often picking up a notable number of congressional seats.