Something unusual happened in New Jersey on election night — and it has political observers across the country taking a second look at the numbers.
Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who had been widely seen as competitive in the race for governor, lost to Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill by a margin that stunned even seasoned analysts: 56% to 43%.
The 13-point gap wasn’t just a loss — it was a landslide that contradicted nearly every pre-election poll and caught both parties off guard.
A Race That Looked Competitive Until It Wasn’t
Heading into Election Day, the mood among Republicans in New Jersey was cautiously optimistic. Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who nearly defeated Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, had rebuilt his statewide network and spent months reaching across the aisle. His campaign emphasized fiscal discipline, public safety, and education reform — issues that resonated with many suburban and working-class voters.
Even Democrats privately admitted that Sherrill’s early lead had narrowed in the final stretch. Ciattarelli had managed to secure several endorsements from local Democratic mayors and labor organizations frustrated with state policies on taxes and infrastructure.
Polling data reinforced that perception. In late October, multiple independent pollsters, including Quantus Insights, showed the race tightening to within just a few points. But when results rolled in on election night, the margin was nowhere near close.
Sherrill’s double-digit victory raised eyebrows — not just among Republican strategists, but among pollsters who had correctly predicted outcomes across several other key states this cycle.
Pollsters Admit: ‘The Numbers Don’t Add Up’
One of those firms, Quantus Insights — which gained credibility for accurately tracking voter sentiment during the 2024 presidential race — released a detailed post-election statement on X (formerly Twitter) expressing confusion over the result.
“Our first Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10,” the statement read. “By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast. More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli.”
By late October, their data indicated that Sherrill’s lead had shrunk to just three points among likely voters. Their sampling of 100,000 registered New Jerseyans showed Republican enthusiasm at its highest level since 2021.
“Democrats were still holding the edge and preventing a total breakout,” the post continued, “but based on turnout models, we estimated a Sherrill victory of roughly +5 to +6 points — not a 13-point landslide.”
Demographics Tell Only Part of the Story
Part of the confusion stems from voter demographics. Quantus noted that Sherrill’s coalition looked similar to that of Democratic candidates in previous cycles — strong among white suburban voters, steady among women, but not dramatically improved with minority groups.
“Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024,” the firm said. “While our last poll did show Black voters finally swinging her way, Ciattarelli remained in single-digit support among Black voters.”
But even with those advantages, the scale of Sherrill’s final margin surprised analysts. “You don’t see a 10-point polling miss in a governor’s race without something unusual going on — whether that’s turnout, methodology, or something deeper,” said Dr. Lauren Bennett, a political data scientist at Rutgers University.
Bennett pointed out that polling errors of this size have been rare since the industry began refining its models after 2016. “It’s not impossible,” she said, “but it does raise questions.”
Voter Turnout Patterns Under Review
Early data suggests that Democratic turnout exceeded expectations, particularly in urban areas like Newark, Jersey City, and Camden, where mail-in ballots arrived in record numbers. At the same time, turnout in several Republican-leaning counties — such as Ocean, Monmouth, and Hunterdon — was slightly below 2021 levels.
“That combination can make a big difference,” said Michael Torres, a New Jersey political strategist not affiliated with either campaign. “If Democrats overperformed in their base areas while Republicans stayed flat, you could easily see a gap widen by several points.”
Still, Torres acknowledged that the final tally looked “unusually skewed” compared to pre-election forecasts. “Something shifted dramatically in the last 72 hours, or there was a systemic error somewhere along the way,” he said.
Conservative Reactions and Calls for Transparency
Republican officials across the state have been cautious in their public reactions, but the tone online has been more skeptical. Several conservative commentators have questioned whether technical errors or irregularities in the vote count could have played a role — though no concrete evidence has emerged to suggest widespread problems.
Ciattarelli himself has stopped short of alleging wrongdoing but called for “a full and transparent review” of the state’s voting data.
“In a democracy, confidence in our elections matters just as much as the results,” he said in a brief statement Thursday morning. “We respect the process — but the public deserves clarity about how such a dramatic shift occurred in just a few weeks.”
The Sherrill campaign dismissed concerns as “political noise,” emphasizing that the election results were certified by bipartisan county officials and verified through established procedures.
“New Jersey voters spoke clearly,” a campaign spokesperson said. “The margin reflects a coalition that believes in moving the state forward, not backward.”
New Jersey’s Political Landscape: More Blue Than Red?
Despite its recent reputation as a battleground state, New Jersey has leaned Democratic for decades. No Republican has won a statewide election since Chris Christie’s re-election in 2013. Yet Ciattarelli’s near-upset in 2021 — when he came within three points of unseating Murphy — gave the GOP hope that the tide might be turning.
That optimism now appears premature.
“The 2025 results show that New Jersey remains a reliably Democratic state at the statewide level,” said Tom Kean Jr., a former Republican congressman and current political commentator. “Ciattarelli ran an excellent campaign, but demographic and institutional advantages still heavily favor Democrats.”
Kean also noted that the growth of mail-in voting, which has surged since the pandemic, continues to benefit Democrats. “Republicans have not caught up with Democrats in early-vote organizing. That’s just a fact,” he said.
Pollsters Facing a Reckoning
Quantus Insights isn’t the only firm grappling with what happened. Several other respected pollsters, including Monmouth University and Emerson College, have quietly begun reviewing their internal data to identify possible errors in turnout modeling or sampling.
“The truth is, New Jersey’s electorate has become extremely complex,” said Dr. Bennett of Rutgers. “There’s a blend of suburban moderates, urban progressives, and rural conservatives that don’t always fit neatly into traditional models.”
She added that national issues — from inflation and border policy to abortion rights — may have influenced last-minute voter behavior in unpredictable ways.
“Even a small late swing among suburban women or college-educated voters can create a big ripple effect in a state like New Jersey,” Bennett said.
What Comes Next
As the dust settles, New Jersey officials have announced that all ballots, including mail-in and provisional votes, will undergo standard post-election audits. Those audits, which have been routine since 2020, are expected to confirm the integrity of the process.
Still, the unexpected magnitude of Sherrill’s victory is likely to fuel debate for weeks — not only among partisans but also within the polling industry itself.
For Republicans, the challenge will be determining whether the loss reflects a temporary misfire or a deeper shift away from the party in the Northeast. For Democrats, the question is whether their coalition — energized by younger and more diverse voters — can be sustained in future elections.
As Quantus Insights concluded in its post:
“We trust the data, but when the data and the outcome don’t align, it’s our job to ask why. That’s not partisanship — that’s accountability.”
For now, what happened in New Jersey remains a mystery — one that’s likely to dominate political analysis well into 2026.