A new political clash may soon emerge in Alaska as Governor Mike Dunleavy—a longtime ally of former President Donald Trump—is reportedly preparing to run for the U.S. Senate in 2028.
According to multiple sources close to the governor, Dunleavy has quietly begun laying the groundwork for a campaign to challenge incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican who has frequently broken ranks with Trump and his supporters.
If confirmed, the matchup would pit two of Alaska’s most influential political figures against each other in what could become one of the most closely watched Republican primaries in the country.
A Longtime Trump Ally Steps Forward
Reports first surfaced this week from Fox News, citing insiders who claim Dunleavy has discussed a possible Senate bid with close advisers and national political allies.
“He’s not quitting his term early,” said one senior aide familiar with the governor’s thinking. “He intends to serve out his time as governor and then run when his term is done.”
Dunleavy, first elected governor in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, has remained one of Trump’s most loyal state executives since endorsing him in 2016—becoming only the second sitting governor at the time to do so.
“President Trump and Governor Dunleavy have maintained a strong relationship,” the source continued. “Trump has spoken with him about running and believes he’d make an excellent senator for Alaska.”
A Stark Contrast to Murkowski
If Dunleavy enters the race, his biggest obstacle—and rival—would be Lisa Murkowski, who has held her Senate seat since 2002. Over her two-decade tenure, Murkowski has cultivated a reputation as a centrist Republican, often crossing party lines on key issues such as abortion rights, energy policy, and judicial appointments.
Her most public break with Trump came in 2021, when she voted to convict him during his second impeachment trial. Trump, in turn, vowed to oppose her re-election and endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former state official, during the 2022 GOP primary.
Despite Trump’s efforts, Murkowski narrowly defeated Tshibaka in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, securing another six-year term.
Political observers say Dunleavy would represent a more serious threat to Murkowski than Tshibaka ever did, given his statewide popularity and executive experience.
“Dunleavy is not a fringe figure—he’s the sitting governor,” said political analyst James Calder of the University of Alaska. “He has name recognition, proven fundraising power, and a base that overlaps heavily with Trump’s supporters.”
A Governor Known for Results, Not Headlines
Those who have worked closely with Dunleavy describe him as a quiet, results-driven leader who avoids the national spotlight but commands loyalty at home.
“He’s not the type who enjoys political theater,” said a former aide who worked with Dunleavy in Juneau. “He doesn’t go to D.C. cocktail parties or chase cameras. He focuses on what gets done for Alaska.”
That low-key approach has earned him both respect and criticism. Supporters see it as a sign of humility and focus, while detractors argue it makes him less visible on the national stage.
Still, Dunleavy’s record in office has been marked by ambitious policies—particularly his efforts to expand Alaska’s energy sector, cut state spending, and defend the state’s oil and gas industries against federal regulation.
“He’s about Alaskans first,” said one campaign strategist. “He’s conservative, pragmatic, and loyal to the people who put him in office.”
Learning from the Palin Precedent
One factor shaping Dunleavy’s cautious approach to timing is the legacy of Sarah Palin, Alaska’s former governor who resigned in 2009 to pursue national ambitions.
“She never recovered from leaving office early,” one adviser remarked. “Governor Dunleavy doesn’t want to make that mistake.”
Instead, Dunleavy intends to complete his second term before turning his attention to Washington. Sources say he views the Senate not as a personal promotion but as a necessary next step to advance Alaska’s interests on the federal level.
“He’s made it clear—he loves Alaska more than politics,” said a confidant. “But he also understands that many of the state’s biggest challenges are decided in Washington, not Juneau.”
Trump’s Influence and a Growing Alliance
Dunleavy’s alliance with Trump has remained strong throughout both of their political careers. He was among the first governors to visit the Trump White House regularly, even despite the 3,500-mile distance between Juneau and Washington, D.C.
In August, Dunleavy also attended Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage—a rare diplomatic event held on U.S. soil that underscored Alaska’s strategic geopolitical role.
While details of the meeting remain confidential, sources close to the governor say the event highlighted his position as Trump’s most trusted ally in the Arctic region.
“Trump sees Alaska as vital to America’s defense and energy independence,” said one insider. “He believes Dunleavy is the man to represent that mission in the Senate.”
A Difficult State for Governors Turned Senators
If Dunleavy launches a Senate campaign, he would enter a long line of Alaskan governors who faced mixed results in pursuing national office.
The last governor to win re-election in Alaska was Jay Hammond in 1978, and none since have managed to parlay state success into a major federal position.
Former Governor Sean Parnell, who took office after Palin’s resignation, failed to win re-election in 2014. Palin herself attempted a political comeback in 2022 but lost a special election for Alaska’s lone House seat to Democrat Mary Peltola.
Political historian Eleanor Markham notes that Alaska’s independent-minded electorate often resists long-term incumbency and tends to favor candidates with strong local ties over national figures.
“Alaskans are unpredictable,” Markham said. “They don’t like outsiders telling them who to vote for—even if that outsider is Donald Trump.”
A Potentially Explosive Primary
If Dunleavy enters the Senate race, Alaska could see a highly charged Republican primary that tests the balance between the Trump-aligned populist wing of the party and its moderate establishment base.
Murkowski, now in her early 60s, has yet to confirm whether she plans to run for another term. Her office has declined to comment on the rumors surrounding Dunleavy’s potential campaign.
Meanwhile, Trump’s political action committee is reportedly preparing to throw its full support behind Dunleavy if he announces.
“This could be the race that defines the future of the Republican Party in Alaska,” said analyst James Calder. “Murkowski represents the old guard—Dunleavy represents the new one.”
Eyes on 2028
For now, Dunleavy has given no public indication of his plans beyond finishing his term. When asked recently about his political future, he deflected with characteristic humor.
“I’m still trying to shovel my driveway,” he said with a laugh. “Let’s get through this winter first.”
Behind the scenes, however, campaign strategists are already discussing potential donors, early staffing, and policy messaging centered on energy independence, border security, and protecting Alaska’s economic sovereignty.
Whether or not Dunleavy officially enters the race, his potential candidacy signals a new phase in the post-Trump Republican landscape—one where state leaders, not just senators and congressmen, could redefine the party’s future direction.
As one GOP insider put it:
“If Dunleavy runs, it won’t just be a Senate campaign—it’ll be a statement about where the Republican Party is heading.”